Dubai Real Estate – June 2026 Results: So Far, So Good
I continue to track the Dubai real estate market to understand where it's heading.
Last month, I shared an update showing a 46% year-over-year decline in transaction volumes in May, highlighting the growing imbalance between buyers and sellers.
June showed a noticeable recovery from May's lows. Overall transaction volumes were down 19% year-over-year, while average prices remained broadly flat.
However, if we look at the secondary market only, the picture is less encouraging:
- Transaction volumes declined 31% year-over-year
- Prices remained broadly unchanged compared to June 2025
ExpandOverall Dubai real estate transaction volumes — June 2026
The market appears to be stabilising after the sharp slowdown in May, but activity in the secondary market remains significantly weaker than last year. It will be interesting to see whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a longer normalisation period.
For this review, I prefer to focus on the secondary market to provide a more balanced view of Dubai's real estate market.
I understand that secondary transactions account for only around 20% of all Dubai Land Department registrations, with the remaining majority coming from the off-plan market.
However, I focus on the secondary market because it reflects current market conditions more accurately. Many off-plan registrations represent purchase decisions made months earlier, making the secondary market a better indicator of today's buyer and seller dynamics.
ExpandSecondary market vs off-plan transaction split — June 2026
1. Community Performance
As of June, only Dubai Creek Harbour, Arjan, and Sobha Hartland (although not among the top 10 communities by transaction volume) recorded year-over-year growth in secondary market transactions. Every other major community experienced a double-digit decline in transaction volumes.
ExpandSecondary market transaction volume by community — June 2026 vs June 2025
In terms of pricing, Dubai Hills saw the largest correction, with the median sale price declining 9% year-over-year. I covered Dubai Hills in more detail in a separate post.
2. One-Bedroom Apartments and Four-Bedroom Villas
One-bedroom apartments experienced the sharpest slowdown, with transaction volumes down 41% year-over-year. Despite the decline in activity, median prices remained resilient, increasing 5% compared to last year.
ExpandSecondary market transaction volume by number of bedrooms — June 2026 vs June 2025
Interestingly, 4-bedroom properties were the most resilient segment, with transaction volumes remaining almost unchanged from last year. This was largely driven by 4-bedroom villas and townhouses, particularly in DAMAC Lagoons, The Valley by Emaar, Mudon, and Arabian Ranches, which were among the communities supporting market activity in June.
Expand4-bedrooms secondary market transaction volume by property type — June 2026 vs June 2025
3. High Activity in Newly Signed Rental Contracts
In June, the number of annual rental contracts reached almost 24,000, up 15% year-over-year.
The growth was driven by newly signed contracts, which increased 39% year-over-year. At the same time, the median annual rent for these new contracts declined by 7%, suggesting tenants are becoming more price-sensitive while rental activity remains strong.
ExpandAnnual rental contract volumes — newly signed vs renewals, June 2026
In my view, the strong growth in newly signed rental contracts is driven by two complementary factors: a rising number of off-plan projects reaching completion, and a more challenging sales market that is prompting many owners to rent out their properties instead of selling them.
Top 10 communities by newly signed rental contracts — JVC, Arjan, and Deira are driving the newly signed rental market.
ExpandTop 10 communities by newly signed rental contract volume — June 2026
As always, the analysis is based on transaction data from the Dubai Land Department.