Dubai Real Estate – July 2026 Results: Recovery Continues, but Below Last Year's Pace
I'd like to share an update on the Dubai real estate market based on the full July transaction data.
Last month, I noted that June marked the beginning of a recovery from May's transaction lows. That recovery continued in July, with nearly 3,400 secondary market transactions completed.
However, compared to July 2025, transaction activity remains significantly weaker — volumes are still 29% lower year-over-year.
ExpandSecondary market transaction volumes — July 2026 vs July 2025
As in my previous reviews, this analysis focuses exclusively on the secondary market, which I believe provides the clearest view of current market conditions. Many off-plan registrations reflect purchase decisions made months or even years earlier, making the secondary market a better real-time indicator of buyer and seller dynamics.
July highlights:
- Transaction volumes: -29% year-over-year
- Median price per sq. ft.: +4% year-over-year
The combination of lower transaction volumes and resilient prices suggests that while activity has improved from the May slowdown, the market has yet to return to last year's pace.
1. Community Performance
As of July, the most active communities continued to experience a sharp decline in secondary market transactions. JVC, Business Bay, and Downtown Dubai all recorded transaction volumes more than 30% lower year-over-year.
ExpandSecondary market transaction volume by community — July 2026 vs July 2025
In terms of pricing, Dubai Hills was the only community among the top five by transaction volume to record a price decline, with the median sale price per sq. ft. down 4% year-over-year. I covered Dubai Hills in more detail in a separate post.
Based on the last three months, among the most active communities JVC still manages to maintain the highest gross rental yield spread at 6.3%–7.6%. I covered the JVC rental situation in a separate post.
ExpandGross rental yield by community — last 3 months
2. One-Bedroom Apartments Showed the Largest Drop
One-bedroom apartments continued to experience the sharpest slowdown in July, with transaction volumes down 38% year-over-year. Despite weaker demand, prices remained resilient — the median price per sq. ft. increased 7% compared to last year.
ExpandSecondary market transaction volume by number of bedrooms — July 2026 vs July 2025
3. High Activity in Newly Signed Rental Contracts
In July, the number of annual rental contracts reached almost 33,000, up 44% year-over-year.
The increase was fuelled by newly signed contracts, which rose 72% year-over-year. At the same time, the median annual rent for these contracts fell 7%, suggesting that a growing supply of available homes is encouraging tenants to relocate while putting downward pressure on rents.
ExpandAnnual rental contract volumes — July 2026
In my view, the increase in newly signed rental contracts reflects four market trends: more off-plan properties reaching completion, a slower sales market prompting owners to lease rather than sell, tenants relocating to more affordable communities — which is further boosting demand for new rental contracts — and holiday home owners (Airbnb) converting their units to long-term rentals as short-term demand softens.
Top 10 communities by newly signed rental contracts — JVC, Deira, and Business Bay are driving the newly signed rental market.
ExpandTop 10 communities by newly signed rental contract volume — July 2026
As always, the analysis is based on transaction data from the Dubai Land Department. You can explore the full data and analytics on DubaiPropertyScore.